USDA 2007/08 Global cotton mills demand active and inventory reduction
2007/08 (marketing year August/July), the world cotton ending stocks are expected to be 54.8 million bales, a decrease of 6 million bales from the previous year and the lowest level since 2003/04. The reason for this year's reduction in inventories is that the growth of global cotton mill usage exceeded the average growth level, and the world cotton production decreased in 2007/08. The decline in global inventories is due to reduced inventories in some countries, including the United States, China, Australia and Pakistan. These countries accounted for nearly 80% of the world inventory reduction in 2007/08. US inventories are expected to decrease by 1.9 million bales to 7.6 million bales, but they are still the second largest inventory since 1985/86. The 2007/08 global cotton output is expected to be 119.4 million bales, a decrease of 2% from the previous year’s output of 121.9 million bales, which is the third largest output. This year, the output of the major cotton-producing countries has increased and decreased. China's output, the world's largest cotton producer, is expected to be the same as last year, at 35.5 million bales. India is expected to increase production by 1.7 million bales in 2007/08, and the United States is expected to reduce production by 2.7 million bales. The total foreign cotton production in 2007/08 was about 100.5 million bales. Slightly higher than the previous year, a new high. The consumption of cotton mills in the world is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend, hitting a new high of 129.2 million bales in 2007/08, an increase of nearly 5% (6 million bales) compared to 2006/07. The use of foreign cotton mills is expected to reach 125 million bales, while the use of US mills will continue to decrease. The use of foreign cotton mills is expected to increase for the ninth consecutive year. Among countries other than the United States, the cotton-producing countries with the largest increase in mill use in 2007/08 are China (an increase of 5 million bales) and India (an increase of 1.1 million bales). 2007/08 China is expected to continue to account for more than 80% of the 55 million bales increase in global cotton mill usage, and China will account for nearly 43% of global cotton mill usage. As foreign textile mills use more than 10 million bales more than their output, the 2007/08 global cotton trade is expected to be larger than the previous year. World cotton trade is expected to be 41.1 million bales this year, compared to 37.6 million bales in 2006/07. Major foreign cotton-producing countries are also major cotton consumers. The United States’ share of the 2007/08 world cotton trade growth rate The largest amount. Foreign exports are expected to increase by 1% to 24.9 million bales, or 61% of the world's 2007/08 cotton trade. Foreign imports are expected to be 41.4 million bales, an 11% increase from 2006/07. 2007/08 US production is expected to be close to 18.9 million bales, which is 13% less than 2006/07, but greater than earlier expectations. The planted area has been reduced by nearly 30% compared to 2006/07, due to the expected higher prices of competing crops during the growing season. Cotton acreage in the United States has dropped to its lowest water level since 1989/90. But this year's abandonment rate is the low end of 60 years. The reason is that during the cotton growing season, the weather in most parts of the cotton growing belt is very good, especially in the southwest. The area harvested in 2007/08 in the United States was only 10.5 million acres, but the yield per harvested acre hit a record of 859 pounds, which increased the cotton production in the United States.