Analysis and Prospect of Sino-U.S. Textile Trade Situation in 2008
(1) The U.S. economic downturn may cause negative growth in textile consumption and imports. The subprime mortgage crisis since the third quarter of last year caused the U.S. economy to experience the most serious decline since 2001. In March this year, the OECD predicted that the U.S. economic growth rate in the first quarter was only 0.1 %. American consumers are facing multiple pressures such as mortgage pressure, stock market shrinking, dollar depreciation, rising prices, and unemployment threats. Consumer spending is expected to decline significantly. Consumer demand for textile products will inevitably be negatively affected. In 2008, the overall consumption and import level of textile products in the United States may experience negative growth for the first time since 2001. (2) The reshuffle of the US import market share continues. Facing the prospect of a possible reduction in consumption and imports in the US market, major textile product exporting countries will continue to compete fiercely for the US market in 2008. Judging from the current situation, CAFTA, which has been implemented for more than a year, has not restored the unfavorable situation of exports of textiles from neighboring countries in the United States to the United States. Exports to the United States from Canada, Mexico, and Central American countries may continue to decrease. South Asian countries such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh It will continue to strive to expand its market share in the United States. Vietnam, which has sprung up after its accession to the WTO, is expected to maintain a rapid growth momentum in 2008, directly threatening India's position as the third largest source of imports of textile products in the United States. (3) The growth momentum of China's textile products exported to the United States may slow down. 2008 is the last year of the implementation of the Sino-US Textile Trade Memorandum. My export of textile products to the United States faces both favorable and unfavorable factors. The main favorable factors are the further growth of quotas for restricted categories, and the market share is expected to expand; the unfavorable factors are mainly reflected in: 1. The continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar; 2. The implementation of the new labor law has increased production costs; 3. Domestic textile companies The profit margin is low, and the ability to deal with market fluctuations is weak; 4. After three consecutive years of heavy growth in non-restricted categories, the growth potential in 2008 is limited; 5. Before the expiration of the bilateral agreement at the end of this year, the US textile industry may once again turn to the United States. The government applied for the introduction of trade protection measures, which undermined the stability of the Sino-US textile product trade policy. In January of this year, the number of textile products imported by the United States from the world fell by 3.8% year-on-year, and the value fell 4%; the number of imports from China fell by 3.1%, and the value fell by 7.7%. Despite the presence of the domestic snow disaster in the south, this sign is still worthy of attention. (4) Textile trade protectionism may come back The Sino-US bilateral agreement will expire at the end of the year, and the US textile industry has been intensively studying countermeasures in an attempt to promote the introduction of new trade protection measures. At present, major textile organizations in the United States have put forward a variety of plans including anti-subsidy investigations, anti-dumping investigations, the government's autonomous anti-dumping based on the monitoring plan, and product-specific safeguard measures (clause 421). In addition, the results of the U.S. election will dominate the future direction of textile trade policy to a certain extent. Once the Democratic presidential candidate takes office, textiles may once again become the victim of the U.S. government’s harsh stance on China’s trade policy, and if the Republican candidate wins , The US textile industry’s attempts to impose restrictions on a large scale may face more difficulties.